Poll of Customs Union vote rebels’ constituencies reveals Baker’s Dozen MPs out of touch with own constituents
September 23, 2018
• 83% of voters say Government stronger if they presented a united front
• 70% of voters would switch vote in order to achieve the best Brexit outcome
• 63% say MPs should back manifesto commitment to take UK out of EU
• 60% of Conservative voters say their MP was wrong to vote to stay in the Customs Union
Tory rebel MPs who voted against the Government as it sought to extract the UK from the EU Customs Union have badly misjudged the mood among their own voters, a new ComRes poll for Brexit Express, the campaign group set up by City financier Jeremy Hosking to ensure ‘No Backsliding on Brexit’ has revealed.
Brexit Express, polled the constituencies of 12 Remain-backing MPs who represent Leave voting constituencies after they rebelled over the European Withdrawal Bill, as well as the Maidenhead constituency of Remain-backing Prime Minister, Theresa May.
Rt Hon Dominic Grieve QC MP - Beaconsfield
Heidi Allen MP - South Cambs
Rt Hon Ken Clarke QC, MP, Father of the House Rushcliffe (Notts)
Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP - Loughborough
Rt Hon Anna Soubry MP - Broxtowe (Notts)
Sarah Wollaston MP - Totnes
Bob Neill MP - Bromley and Chislehurst
Stephen Hammond MP - Wimbledon
Dr Phillip Lee MP - Bracknell
Jonathan Djanogly MP - Huntingdon
Antoinette Sandbach MP - Eddisbury (Cheshire)
Guto Bebb MP - Aberconwy
The poll findings put the Remainer rebels firmly on the wrong side of voter opinion.
60% of Conservative voters, whose Conservative MP voted for the UK to stay in the Customs Union, say they were wrong to rebel (60%).
More than four in five voters living in the constituencies polled think the British Government will have more negotiating power over Brexit if the Conservative Party present a united front (83%), this significantly increases amongst Conservative voters themselves (93% vs 71% Labour voters). A significant majority of Remain voters in the constituencies polled think the British Government will have more negotiating power over Brexit if the Conservative Party present a united front (77%), compared to 91% of Leave voters.
Seven in ten adults in the constituencies polled (including 70% of 2017 Conservative voters) would be prepared to vote for a party they wouldn’t otherwise vote for, in order to ensure that the UK gets the best Brexit outcome possible (70%) with clear implications for all the main parties and illustrating a clear gap in the electoral market.
Further evidence of voter disquiet comes with more than half of adults living in the constituencies polled saying they would consider voting for a political party with one single aim to put pressure on the main political parties to conclude Brexit “as quickly and fully as possible” (53%). The majority of constituents living in Loughborough (60%), Totnes (58%), Huntingdon (57%), Aberconwy (55%), South Cambridgeshire (55%) and Broxtowe (55%) would consider voting for a party with one single aim.
With nearly two thirds of voters in these constituencies (63%) agreeing that Conservative MPs “should vote in accordance with the manifesto upon which they were elected, which includes taking the UK out of the EU”, the potential electoral impact of failing to deliver is clear. Even four in five Remain voters (39%) across all the seats polled take the view that their MP should respect the commitments of the manifesto on which they were elected.
And with the Prime Minister giving MPs a choice between ‘Chequers’ or ‘No Deal’, nearly a third of voters (31%) and nearly half of Conservative voters (47%) in the constituencies polled think the Government should be prepared to walk away without a deal if the EU demands further concessions to Theresa May’s ‘Chequers’ proposal.
The poll results contained a stark warning for the MPs concerned, with around two in five Conservative voters in the constituencies polled taking the view that MPs who are in favour of Remaining in the EU but represent constituencies who voted to Leave should step down (39%). This even includes one in five (19%) Remain voters.
Around two in five voters living in Aberconwy (42%), Bracknell (40%) and Loughborough (39%) think local Conservative Associations should work to de-select MPs who are in favour of Remaining in the EU but represent constituencies that voted to Leave.
Brexit Express founder Jeremy Hosking said: “These poll findings illustrate very clearly the failure of our political classes to grasp the strength of feeling among their own electorate, and in particular that voters expect their MPs to honour the commitments they made when they were elected. The Baker’s Dozen are the perfect example of a willful blindness caused by terminal arrogance. What this tells me is there is a chasm of a gap in the British political marketplace and Brexit Express will continue to help to fill it.”
For further information contact Patrick Barrow on 0203 189 1951, 07795 035363 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Brexit Express is an independent campaign group dedicated to the delivery of Brexit. Full details are available at www.brexitexpress.co.uk
Methodology: ComRes surveyed 4,110 British adults (343 Aberconwy, 339 Eddisbury, 343 Totnes, 300 Beaconsfield, 300 Maidenhead, 317 Bromley & Chislehurst, 318 South Cambridgeshire, 314 Broxtowe, 318 Huntingdon, 317 Rushcliffe, 301 Loughborough, 300 Bracknell, 300 Wimbledon) via telephone between 20th August and 16th September 2018. Data were weighted by gender, age and EU Referendum vote at a constituency level. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables available to view at: http://www.comresglobal.com/polls/brexit-express-conservative-constituency-polling-september-2018/